HS2, Boris Johnson, and a new kind of Conservatism?

On Tuesday, after a great deal of uncertainty and delay, HS2 has been given the green light by the Prime Minister.

So, what do we know?

HS2 is a proposed new high-speed intercity rail line, which would be the fastest in Europe. The project is divided between multiple phases. Phase 1 would see a line between London and Birmingham. Then there is Phase 2a, which extends the line from Birmingham to Crewe, Greater Manchester, and Phase 2b, which would extend the line from Crewe to Manchester and also add a line from Birmingham to Leeds.

The premise of HS2 is seeking to improve the UK’s rail infrastructure which is widely regarded to be dated. It is about increasing capacity, speed and efficiency of train services, particularly by improving links in the north. The upshot of this would also expect to see a decrease in costs for train travel and use of other forms of transport, particularly dependence upon domestic flights.

So, what was said?

In the Commons on Tuesday, the general consensus, even from the opposition, was support. There is an acknowledgement that the necessity of upgrading the UK’s public transport infrastructure is long overdue since plans of it were first announced in 2010 by then Labour Transport Secretary, Lord Adonis.

Much of the debate surrounded not whether HS2 should go ahead but how, with the management of social, financial, and environmental concerns coming in for scrutiny. The only real steps made in this sense came in addressing the mismanagement and stagnation of the project over the past decade. Johnson committed to the appointment of a full-time minster to oversee the progress of the project as well as an oversight group to provide scrutinization of costs and time.

Speaking of the price tag, a typical combination of contractor underbidding and zero risk consideration for the project has seen the estimated cost balloon to £106 Billion at present, which has made it hugely unpopular with the taxpayer. But Johnson still stressed this should not detract from the value and importance of a project of this size, which typically faces such criticism over cost and disruption at its inception, pointing to examples such as the Olympics and the M25 (everyone’s favourite stretch of motorway).

On the other hand, in their veiled support of the project, most largely disregarded the environmental impacts, although Johnson did acknowledge plans for the project to restore more than it would destroy around the sites of the tracks.

Jeremy Corbyn accused Johnson of copying Labour language, but without going far enough in his commitments. He highlighted Labour pledges to over ten times more in cycling infrastructure than what the Conservatives are proposing and questioned attempts to carry out these commitments whilst the chancellor seeks to make department cuts of five per cent.

By contrast, Johnson’s statement declared HS2 as part of a ‘New Anatomy of Public Transport’, conveniently adding in plans for £5 Billion of investment in bus and cycling infrastructure to boot. Johnson was keen to highlight this as a ‘local’ as well as a national transport revolution, emphasising the importance of ‘east-west’ travel as well as ‘north-south.’ The PM is clearly keen to move ideas away from HS2 as an extension of the London commuter belt. He is in a position where he recognises that he has won support in the north and projects and ambition like he has set out here, will appeal to those areas. If he does as Corbyn says so and fails to properly address these issues or show adequate progress upon them in the next five years, then Corbyn’s words will ring true and greater questions will be asked of the already excessive cost and time that is being committed. This represents a risk for Johnson, it comes with the responsibility to deliver on his ‘get it done’ mantra in order to maintain the support of the red seats he took in December.

But whilst the PM basks in his populist agenda, putting himself in the annals of history with his ‘duty’ to reinvigorate and revolutionise a nations transport network, he must contend with the tension within his own party that has historically sought to maintain its stance as a party of fiscal prudence (as we see with the chancellor’s efforts to go explore departmental cuts). However, everything I was about to discuss with regards to this has changed. As I finish this and the news of the Sajid Javid’s resignation breaks, you sense this cabinet reshuffle represents a shift in 21st Century Conservatism; populist extravagance over fiscal discipline.

HS2 will inevitably be subject to a great deal of public scrutiny, spiralling cost and probably some delay, I’ll take bets on Phase 2B being completed before the projected 2040 date. However, I think the overarching consensus is that when the project is (hopefully) complete it will be regarded as something that was necessary to have done for British infrastructure.

The question is, and not entirely in a financial sense, at what cost?